Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Where Are We in the 2025-2026 Bull Run?

Bitcoin has entered what many analysts consider the most explosive phase of its four-year cycle. Following the April 2024 halving, the reduced supply issuance combined with unprecedented institutional demand has created a perfect storm for price appreciation.

On-chain data tells a compelling story. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures the ratio of market value to realized value, currently sits at 4.2 — historically, readings above 7 have signaled cycle tops. This suggests significant upside potential remains.

Institutional adoption has fundamentally changed the market structure. With spot ETFs collectively holding over 1.2 million BTC and sovereign wealth funds beginning allocation, the demand side of the equation has never been stronger.

However, risks remain. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, potential regulatory crackdowns, and the ever-present threat of black swan events could derail the bull thesis. Prudent risk management remains essential.

Our base case targets $120,000-$150,000 for the cycle peak, with the possibility of overshooting to $180,000+ in a blow-off top scenario. The timeline points to late Q3 or Q4 2026 for the cycle peak.